Arab Americans split between Harris, Trump — but policy change may sway them, poll finds
Arab American voters are now evenly split in their support for the Democratic and Republican parties, marking a break from the historical norm, according to new polling.
In the latest Arab American Institute (AAI) poll, both parties received 38% support, and their nominees —Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — were effectively tied with 42% to 41% support.
Voter decisions were largely influenced by the Joe Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, which they said was one of their top issues.
“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” James Zogby, the AAI president, said in a news release.
Still, with just one month until the election, both candidates could significantly increase their support if they make certain policy changes.
The poll, which was conducted between Sept. 9 and 20, sampled 500 Arab American voters and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Other key findings
The same share of Arab American voters — 38% — now identify as Democrats and Republicans, according to the poll.
This figure marks a short-term resurgence in Democratic identification, which was at a record low in 2023. But, it is still below the historical levels of Democratic identification — which was at 40% in 2020 and 52% in 2016.
Sixty-three percent of respondents said they are enthusiastic about voting, and 55% of 18-29-year-old respondents said they are unenthusiastic. This lack of excitement could impact voter turnout come November.
Further, the vast majority of respondents, 81%, said Gaza would be an important factor in determining how they vote.
Israel’s yearlong war has left over 40,000 Gazans dead, 495,000 on the brink of starvation and 1.9 million displaced, according to the Associated Press.
Overall, Gaza ranked as the second-most important issue following jobs and the economy. But, among Arab American Democrats, it was the top issue.
Additionally, both Harris and Trump could gain significant ground among Arab American voters if they change course on Gaza, the poll found.
If Harris were to call for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza or to withhold arms shipments and diplomatic support to Israel, her support would increase to about 60%.
If Trump were to do the same, his support would increase to around 55%.
The poll also found 60% of respondents were concerned about their safety and 63% said they have faced discrimination on account of their country of origin or ethnicity. Both of these figures have increased by double digits from 2023.