What you can expect at the Democratic convention in Chicago: Kamala Harris, Tim Walz and more
This week’s Democratic National Convention promises to have the look and feel of a pep rally for Kamala Harris.
But its underlying, ultimate importance is as a crucial test of how Harris and her supporters present the sudden presidential contender to a public that’s still trying to learn about her.
Harris became the Democrats’ presidential candidate less than a month ago, after President Joe Biden left the race. That makes her unique in modern times, the first major candidate since the 1960s who didn’t go through the long, intense process of being scrutinized by the voting public and her party that presidential candidates endure during the months-long primary and caucus season.
Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is even less well known, having become a national figure only two weeks ago when Harris selected him to join her on the ticket.
“We’re going from a time when everything was baked in, where nothing mattered,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
Before Biden declined to run, the presidential contest was a rematch of two old-timers – Trump is 78, Biden is 81 – whose records and temperaments were well known. Since Harris became the nominee, Miringoff said, “the whole race has become fluid.”
So fluid that even when the convention ends with Harris’ acceptance speech Thursday night, what happens next is unusually unpredictable.
Controversies that could have surfaced during a winter primary could now fester in the weeks before the general election. Same with gaffes or embarrassing campaign moments. Incendiary issues such as inflation, immigration, abortion and crime will get fresh looks.
“Post-convention will be more challenging as her proposals from the stump speech get more scrutiny, and as pressure to do interviews grows,”” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin, one of the election’s swing states..
The convention program will feature political and celebrity supporters reciting the party’s message over and over. Here’s what to look for this week:
Will the Harris momentum last?
Harris has been gaining on Trump, notably in the handful of too-close-to-call states. Before she became the Democrats’ presidential candidate, Trump was ahead of Biden by a few percentage points.
Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis came out of the 1988 Democratic convention with a double digit lead in most polls. He lost to President George H. W. Bush. Bush’s son led Vice President Al Gore by 16 points in a CBS News poll after the 2000 Republican convention but wound up losing the popular vote (though he narrowly won electoral votes to become president).
Democrats are optimistic Harris’s 2024 bounce will last.
“The problem for Trump is that even in Biden’s worst moments, Trump couldn’t get beyond 47%. She has more room for growth than Trump,” said former South Carolina Gov. James Hodges.
Nonpartisan analysts have a different take.
“The most important advantage she has right now is Democratic enthusiasm jumped 20 points from before Biden dropped out to now, and is currently equal to Republican enthusiasm. That’s good for the party. But the need to win over independent voters remains,” said Wisconsin’s Franklin.
Can Harris shed the liberal label?
Throughout much of her 3 ½ years as vice president, polls found that Harris was one of modern history’s least popular vice presidents, and she was rated by the independent group GovTrack as one of the Senate’s most liberal members when she served there from 2017 to 2021.
Since she has led the presidential ticket, though, her favorable numbers have jumped, and she’s drawn huge crowds to her rallies.
Republicans are eager to remind voters why people didn’t like her in the first place.
“Republicans are attempting to portray Kamala Harris as a cackling far-left elitist from deep-blue California with its supposedly failed policies on immigration, homelessness, business retention, crime, and more,” said Kambiz Akhavan, executive director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California.
“That is a right-wing stereotype of top California leaders that is being aggressively promoted. Whether America believes the stereotype has a lot to do with what media they consume and who their friends are,” Akhavan added.
James Adams, a political science professor at University of California, Davis, noted that Harris’ more liberal positions “are part of the public record.”
Also feeding the liberal perception is the fact that she is the first woman of color to be a major political party presidential nominee. Adams said that voters assume that because of her gender and race, and her Bay Area roots, “she is likely to be perceived as more liberal than she actually is.”
Will the Israel issue tear the party apart?
There’s a simmering tension within the Democratic Party over how to approach Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas.
The party has long enjoyed strong support in the Jewish community. But an influential contingent of Democrats wants Israel condemned for its actions in Gaza, where Palestinian authorities estimate about 40,000 people have been killed since the Israel-Hamas war began last fall.
Democratic leaders say that Harris will have the chance to show her skills as someone who weighs both sides fairly.
“I think the vice president has been a productive partner in trying to bring communities together that have not seen eye to eye on this issue and many others in a long long time,” said California Democratic Chairman Rusty Hicks.
But, he added, “I have no doubt there will be some that will want to make their voice heard in one room, one space or another.”
The Coalition to March on the DNC is expecting thousands to march and hold rallies almost daily. While those protests and intra-party division will get a lot of attention this week, “For the public the war is consistently one of the lowest issues rated most important,” said Franklin.
In the spring, polling found it was one of the news events people heard most about, and Franklin said Trump gained some advantage from his comments on the issue, notably his strong support for Israel.
But now, Franklin said, the issue barely registers as one of the voters’ biggest concerns, Even among Democrats, he said, “This is where a small but passionate group is keeping the dissent alive in the party.”
In last month’s national Emerson College Poll, voters overwhelmingly said the economy was their top concern, followed by immigration and threats to democracy.
Can Democrats set the agenda on major issues?
Trump and Republicans have painted a grim picture of the country during the Biden administration, as a crime-ridden, inflation-paralyzed land rife with unchecked immigration.
Democrats point to the lower rates of inflation over the past two years, fewer apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border since the administration in June generally stopped giving migrants asylum, and overall drops in violent crime recently.
“Campaigns are about the times and how the voters are feeling about the country’s situation and how they feel about the candidates,” said Hodges.
Polls show Harris gaining somewhat on issues like crime, immigration and the economy, but Trump is still viewed as better able to handle those matters
An August 8-12 AP-NORC poll found that Trump has an eight percentage point advantage over Harris on the economy and about the same margin on handling immigration. Independent voters, who are likely to be crucial in determining the winner in November, are more likely to back Trump as better equipped to handle both matters.
Will emphasizing optimism and kindness work?
On the campaign trail, Harris and Walz have been both biting and upbeat.
They’ve joked and jabbed about how Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance spoke about “childless cat women,” and claimed that a Trump win would be a threat to democracy. And they’ve emphasized in their stump speeches how they are “joyful warriors.”
Do Harris, Walz and their supporters turn their convention speeches into verbal howitzers? Or try to stay optimistic and upbeat about the future of the country? Or do they try to do both?
“It is clear that early leads can be fleeting, and the race can still shift significantly,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College polling director.
“Kamala Harris’s support may not have fully solidified yet. As the race progresses, we could see further swings in the polls, especially after upcoming debates, which have already played a crucial role in the 2024 election cycle,” he said.
Harris and Trump are scheduled to debate September 10, and Walz and Vance will debate October 1.
Remember, said South Carolina’s Hodges, “with 95 or 96% of people, you can’t change their mind. So it could come down to which base is most excited. Or which candidate scares you more?”
This story was originally published August 18, 2024 at 7:55 AM