Election Day nears — here’s what to know and expect in the Valley and around Ohio

By Mahoning Matters staff/wire

Ohio Republicans will seek to retain their hold on every branch of state government this Election Day as Democrats look to a competitive U.S. Senate race as a possible pickup.

The U.S. Senate race has Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Howland, D-13th, facing Republican J.D. Vance for the chance to succeed the GOP’s Rob Portman, who’s retiring. Ryan, a 10-term congressman, has raised more than 3 1/2 times as much money as the Donald Trump-endorsed Vance, a venture capitalist and author of the best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy.” Vance has relied heavily on a cash infusion from Senate Republican leadership, while Ryan also has appealed to national Democrats to help him to the finish line.

Here’s a look at other ballot highlights and what to watch Tuesday:

IN THE VALLEY

One of the most contentious races on ballots in the Mahoning Valley is for state senator for the 33rd District. Incumbent Republican Michael Rulli of Salem, who is seeking his second four-year term, is being challenged by Democrat Bob Hagan of Youngstown, who served in the state House and Senate from 1986 to 2014.

This race has included lots of back and forth. After Hagan posted a picture of a burning campaign sign on Twitter in August, Rulli countered by offering a $5,000 reward for video evidence showing who set fire to the sign. In September, Rulli posted a video on his Facebook page and claimed it shows Hagan in his Rulli Brothers grocery store in Boardman. Rulli said the person in the video harassed customers. Hagan said he’s not the man in the video and directed his attorney to file a cease and desist order.

In state House races:

In county races:

A list of candidates and issues on Mahoning County ballots can be found here. A list of candidates on Trumbull County ballots can be found here, and issues are listed here. A list of candidates and issues on ballots in Columbiana County is available here.

AROUND THE STATE

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is going for a second term against Democrat Nan Whaley, the former mayor of Dayton. Whaley has struggled to gain traction against the 75-year-old DeWine. Already well-known, DeWine became a household presence during months of daily briefings at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. More recently, he helped break ground on a huge new Intel computer chip facility.

Most of Ohio’s U.S. House seats under a legally disputed temporary map are considered safe for incumbents, including that of Republican Rep. Jim Jordan, a pro-Trump bulldog. Two incumbents — Democrat Marcy Kaptur in Toledo and Republican Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati area — are in tough races due to the new lines. Also drawing attention is the race for Ryan’s open seat in northeast Ohio’s 13th District. Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes, from a prominent local political family, faces former Trump campaign staffer Madison Gesiotto Gilbert for the seat. Ohio loses one seat in Congress this year due to lagging population growth.

The Ohio Supreme Court has declared both the new congressional map and new legislative maps unconstitutional due to partisan gerrymandering that favors Republicans. That fight has been among issues to energize the race for an open chief justice position between Justices Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, and Sharon Kennedy, a Republican. Democrats view Brunner, a former secretary of state, as among their stronger pickup prospects in a former bellwether state that twice elected Trump by 8 percentage points. Party labels are being listed in Ohio judicial races for the first time this year.

Among statehouse races, all eyes are on a bid by same-sex marriage icon Jim Obergefell, a Democrat, against incumbent GOP state Rep. D.J. Swearingen for House District 89, a northern Ohio lakeshore district that leans strongly Republican.

In Columbus, unopposed Democrat Munira Abdullahi is poised to become the first Somali American and the first Muslim woman elected to the Ohio General Assembly, a historic moment for the state with the second-largest Somali population in the United States behind Minnesota. Democrat Ismail Mohamed, a lawyer running for District 3, could be the first Somali and Muslim man in the Legislature, should he win against his Republican opponent, J. Josiah Lanning.

Ohio voters also will be asked to decide statewide ballot issues involving whether to prohibit noncitizen voting and whether judges should be required to consider a criminal suspect’s threat to public safety when setting bail.

DECISION NOTES

Ohio routinely counts a little more than 2 percent of votes in the days after Election Day, which should delay race calls only in the closest races. In the 2020 general election, 2.6% of votes were counted after Election Day. In 2018, before the pandemic, 2.7% were counted later. Most late-counted votes in both elections were provisional ballots.

Ohio has mandatory recounts for statewide elections in which the margin between the top two candidates is 0.25% points or fewer. The state has mandatory recounts for U.S. House and other district races in which the margin is 0.5% points or less. The AP may call a statewide or U.S. House race in which the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less, if it determines the lead is too large for a recount to change the outcome. Candidates can request and pay for recounts in races with larger margins.

The AP will not call down-ballot races on election night if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 2% or if the leading candidate is within 2% of the 50% runoff threshold. The AP will revisit those races later in the week to confirm there aren’t enough outstanding votes left to count that could change the outcome.

WHAT ELSE SHOULD YOU KNOW?

Q: What did we learn from the primary?

A: Ryan got about 15,000 more votes than Vance in the primary, but far more Republican votes were cast. While Vance took part in a vicious, seven-way Republican primary, Ryan sailed to victory against two lesser known challengers. Final results showed about 510,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, compared with more than 1 million who voted Republican.

Q: What’s changed since the pandemic election of 2020?

A: Secretary of State Frank LaRose used his executive power to limit secure ballot drop boxes to one per county, despite court challenges by Democrats in 2020 that clarified the elections chief may expand their number and location without legislative approval. A sweeping package of election law changes addressing that and a host of other issues that arose in 2020 is stalled at the Ohio Statehouse, otherwise leaving most election laws as they were.

Q: How long does counting usually take?

A: Ohio counted 90% of its 2020 general election votes by 11:05 p.m. Nov. 3, and all counties reported counting 100% of ballots by 4:45 a.m. the day after.

Q: What are the pitfalls with early returns?

A: Early returns in Ohio tend to favor Democratic candidates who benefit from voters casting advance votes, either absentee or via early in-person voting.

Q: What happens after Tuesday?

A: The election team resumes its tabulation, reaching out to counties for reports of the ballots that were tabulated after election night. Any races left uncalled on Wednesday will be called, if possible, as additional votes come in.

READ UP ON THE RACES

Here’s more on the campaigns in Ohio:

— The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Mahoning Matters staff/wire
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Aaron Moody is a sports and general reporter for the News & Observer. Here is a second sentence for the bio because it will probably be longer than this. Maybe even longer I don't know. Support my work with a digital subscription