Ohio and national government watchdogs warn GOP trying to engineer a more favorable midterm map
Good government leaders in Ohio and around the country are worried about state lawmakers attempting to ‘bake in’ 2026 election results long before voters head to the polls. Between new rounds of redistricting and even more restrictive voting legislation, Republican state lawmakers seem poised to engineer an easier path for their party’s candidates, they say.
“I think Ohio has become something of a test subject state for seeing just how far a super majority can chip away at access to the ballot and our rights to direct democracy,” Kelley Dufour from Common Cause Ohio said.
With Republicans notching several wins in 2024, the “sensationalized” version of voter restriction rhetoric has taken something of a back seat, Dufour said.
“But forces are still working behind the scenes, right? At an administrative death by 1,000 cuts,” she said. “It’s a quieter process, but it’s significantly harmful to voters.”
One example is a sharp uptick in provisional voting.
In 2024, Dufour explained, 34,000 had to vote provisionally — roughly 40% more than in the last presidential election.
Meanwhile, Ohio lawmakers are considering new measures that would require proof of citizenship to register and open the door to challenging a voters’ citizenship status on Election Day itself.
Proof of citizenship would require voters gathering birth certificates, divorce records, name-change records, or other paperwork.
This has already presented difficulties, for instance, for some trying to obtain a National I.D. card for air travel.
How it plays out on the map
But the “cherry on top,” Dufour said, is redistricting. Ohio could see a major shakeup to its congressional map ahead of next year’s midterms because lawmakers here are legally required to draft a new map.
Right now, Ohio has 15 districts with five represented by Democrats and 10 represented by Republicans, or 33% to 66%.
Midterm elections typically serve as a kind of referendum on a new presidential administration. Historically it has not been kind to the president’s party. That’s particularly concerning in the U.S. House, where Republicans are clinging to a thin 220-2012 majority.
Redistricting in GOP-controlled states like Ohio and Texas could turn that vulnerability into an advantage.
Common Cause Texas Executive Director Anthony Gutierrez explained, in his state, the governor has already announced a special session in July.
The governor hasn’t shared what will be on the agenda, but at a recent press conference the state’s lieutenant governor was enthusiastic about the idea.
“He was asked about redistricting, and he said that he does think that if there’s any opportunity for Republicans in Texas to pick up some seats, that he does think that they should do it,” Gutierrez said, “So, nothing confirmed, but senior Republicans who probably have some insight into what’s going on, have been giving indications that they do think this is going to happen.”
In Ohio, lawmakers have to come up with a new map because the last one was approved along party lines.
The General Assembly has until the end of September to come up with a map but has shown little inclination to do so thus far. If lawmakers don’t act, that would put the task back in the hands of the seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission.
“Currently, we have five Democrats and 10 Republicans that Ohio sends to D.C.,” Dufour said. “The map-making process could eliminate a few Democratic-leaning districts.”
What that might look like in Ohio
Ohio Republican U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno is eager to see it happen. Moreno told Punchbowl News he thinks the GOP will pick up two additional seats and that Republicans controlling 12 of 15 districts — 80% of the delegation — “reflects the state.”
Moreno reasoned there’s “a recognition” that big cities like Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland will be represented by Democrats.
Moreno won his statewide race with just 50.09% of the vote, a far cry from the 80% share he thinks Republicans should control in the U.S. House. In addition to losing the three Cs, Moreno lost counties anchored by Toledo, Akron, Dayton, and Athens.
Sitting in the crosshairs of Ohio’s redistricting effort are Ohio Democratic U.S. Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes. Kaptur’s Toledo-area district and Sykes’ Akron-based seat are the two most closely divided districts in the state.
Both lawmakers have drawn familiar challengers. Republican former State Rep. Derek Merrin has joined a crowded primary field for a rematch against Kaptur. State Rep. Josh Williams, R-Sylvania Twp., has thrown his hat in the ring, too.
In Sykes’ district, her 2024 opponent, Republican former state Rep. Kevin Coughlin, is running to face her again, as well.
In both contests, even minor tweaks to the map could have a significant impact on the outcome. Sykes only beat Coughlin by about two points. Kaptur’s margin was even tighter. She beat Merrin by just 2,382 votes — less than a percentage point.